Ámbito spoke with four analysts who gave their point of view on what events could influence its value or gave their opinion on whether the trend would be bearish or bullish.
Inflation in the United States gives no respite and this gives the Fed more arguments to continue its aggressive policy of raising interest rates that has a strong impact on the entire financial market, including cryptocurrencies. It should be remembered that the BTC ended September with a negative variation of 2.5% and in October it is difficult for it to consolidate above $20,000. Given this, the question arises, what will happen to its value in the short term?
In a dialogue with Ámbito, Santiago Amat , an accountant specializing in finance, considered that "in the short term I see BTC badly" although he stressed that "in the medium term I think the asset is going to recover." Regarding this, he warned that the Fed interest rate is expected to continue increasing until December, so the downward trend for BTC would continue. "There is an indicator called Cycle Bottom Better that indicates the minimum of the Bitcoin cycle and marked the minimum at $17,300 . However, it can break that floor and we see the asset between $15,000 and $ s12,000 ", he completed.
Among other arguments for the continuation of the price decline, Amat named the halving, and assured that this year "it's bearish and then a year of consolidation." It should be noted that the next halving is in 2024 and that cycle is projected to be bullish. Among the reasons that could make the price of BTC rise, he maintained that there is an indicator that says that the asset is "very undervalued, so it would tend to recover", in addition to highlighting that among the fundamentals is the enormous adoption of cryptocurrencies.
For his part, Santiago Di Paolo , Head of Community & Research at Lemon, gave his view of the current market: "The Fed seems to give no respite with the rate hike trying to control inflation in the United States. That rate hike has a negative impact on throughout the financial market, including Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole. Institutional investors began to see in Bitcoin store-of-value characteristics and began to have their first DeFi strategies."
"The arrival of this type of investor in crypto brings with it two things: a huge increase in the volume traded in the industry and an increase in the correlation between the traditional financial market and the crypto market. Today many portfolios of the most large in the world have some crypto component, be it Bitcoin, Ether or stablecoins in some DeFi protocol", he expanded and completed: "In situations of low liquidity, these large investors have to sell a portion of their portfolio to get cash" .
From its all-time high of $69,500, the cryptocurrency lost more than 70% of its value. During the year it had its minimum at US$17,600. Altcoins fared no better. In the first weeks of May 2022, the “crypto winter” or “cryptocrash” began, which caused several digital currencies to hit lows after the loss of parity of the Terra blochchain stablecoin.
In his turn, Juan Pablo Pisano, CIO of Belo listed the events that could influence its price: "Today the big money is going to look for the US risk-free rate that the market sees around 4% for at least a Another year, that is the narrative for now, but in the background other things are happening. First, in BTC it is being built half silently and little by little. Two, today we have a ball of 180 Billions of stablecoins that before the last bull market or Three, large companies such as payment processors or large marketplaces are starting to get involved without attracting much attention for now, and fourth is the possible landing of CBDCs(Central bank cryptocurrencies) I think that all that narrative together can be explosive and shoot the price to other levels.
Regarding the possible projection of the price, Pisano said that " I doubt very much that we will see prices below US$17,000 again , there is a very sustained floor of US$18,000 and above, if we talk about a ceiling or how far it can go , the BTC has no ceiling" and considered that today the BTC is more related "with risk assets, more with the Nasdaq which is an index of technology companies than with gold. Today BTC is seen more as a risk asset for invest than as a digital store of value.
Technical analysis
"Bitcoin within the weekly compression is holding $18,225 , which would indicate that there would be a bullish rebound to $20,506, an 11.91% upside from the value it held at that point a projection of its values is beginning to be defined at u$s22,523 and a maximum value of u$s24,893 "said Zaira Abasto , financial analyst in dialogue with Ambito and closed: "In case of not maintaining the level of u$ s $18,225 would go to a Bitcoin at $13,816."
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